Ship over Troubled Waters

My take on the sinking of the Bayesian yacht

A super yacht worth around $40 million sank on Monday morning at around 5am, after it was hit by a tornado (known as a waterspout), half a mile from the coast of Sicily. The yacht is owned by Mike Lynch, a multi-billionaire and co-founder of the Autonomy Corporation, and is called the Bayesian (named after Thomas Bayes, who discovered the mathematical probability theory) which was built in 2008 by Perini Navi. When it was launched, it had the tallest aluminium mast in the world at 237ft and the ship itself is 184ft long. Lynch bought the ship from John Groenworld for $35 million in 2014. 

However, it has not been an easy ride for Lynch: when he founded his company in 1996, he continued to build on it before he sold it in 2011 to Hewlett-Packard (HP) for $11 billion. However, a year later, HP claimed they found serious accounting improprieties and accused Lynch and his team of overvaluing the company. The case was handed to the US authorities, who sentenced Autonomy’s Chief Financial Officer for several fraud charges. They also charged Lynch and Chamberlain, his co-defendant, of 15 accounts of fraud. After years of back and forth, the tech tycoon was extradited in 2023, whilst the case was ongoing; a US jury finally acquitted him of all charges in June this year. 

Thus, the Bayesian set sail on Sunday night and moored over Porticello, a fishing village 10 miles east of Palermo, with 22 passengers on board, in response to Lynch being acquitted in the fraud trail. Lynch used this as a celebration and to mark the beginning of a new chapter in his life by putting his companies at the forefront of British IT. He also wanted to use his ‘second life 'to help the deaf by developing AI that would allow hearing aids to filter ambient noises, as well as aiding to free wrongly convicted inmates. 

Alas, the ship was unfortunately caught in the middle of a storm and footage captured the ship sinking into the Mediterranean. Divers and rescue teams have been at the scene for the past three days, recovering 15 bodies, but have been unable to access the hull–which they suspected contains the remaining survivors–due to the angle and floating debris inside. Those still missing were the owner himself, his 18-year-old daughter and five others.

Five bodies were recovered in the search of the super yacht, reported The Telegraph on Thursday morning, two of which are Mike Lynch and his daughter Hannah, who have been announced dead. Three body bags were seen being taken to the port and another was put into the back of the ambulance. They also discovered another body, but are yet to recover it, which leaves one missing. Here is what Salvo Cocina told The Telegraph: “On behalf of myself and my colleagues, I would like to express my deepest sympathy to the families of the victims and express our condolences to them at this difficult time”. 

This tragic incident, though, has more to it than you think, with an investigation being launched into whether it was a freak accident or human error. After searching the ship, it was reported that the vessel’s retractable keel was partially lifted, raising questions about the stability of the boat whilst it was sinking. The keel would have given the yacht a higher chance of not toppling, if it was straight as it would have acted as a counterweight. However, experts have also stated that due to the weight and strength of the ship, it would have been stable without the keel; only a massive water intake could have sunk the ship, which could not have happened very quickly and would have given the crew time to prevent more water entering.

Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy frigate commander, also made some good points stating: ‘It does not change what should be standard response to bad weather…such as tracking forecasts, keeping a good visual lookout and then when it happens, checking the upper deck for watertight integrity/security’. 

Indeed, the crew of the ship also need to be investigated for their mishandling and poor maintenance of the ship: how did they not see the storm brewing, and if they did, why did they continue to sail towards it? Why did they not check the keel before they went out or even the weather? They should have also checked if the hatches and windows were closed. 

Incredibly, the captain of the ship, James Cutfield, managed to escape the vessel in time, just before it plunged into the water; he was eventually rescued and is recovering in hospital. Nine out of the 15 bodies recovered early were also the staff onboard (two were ex-members of HP). Meanwhile, Chamberlain, Lynch’s defendant during his court case, was killed by a car whilst he was on a run two days before and was announced on the same day as the Bayesian sank.

Something dubious is happening with this case and things do not quite add up: a billionaire is convicted for fraud; he is later released and acquitted; then he goes on a celebration journey on his yacht, which sinks; the captain and crew survive unscathed, whilst Lynch, his daughter and friends are killed; and a day later, his defendant is killed–there is a probability for you to fathom.

Coincidence? I think not.